Oscar Nomination Prediction

It's been a long time since I've blogged, but I'm coming back hard core. For at least a couple of days.

I, like a majority of movie geeks, will be up by 8:30 am to watch Anne Hathaway and some guy (the president of the Academy or something, but who cares. I mean Anne Hathaway, right? She can princess my diaries anytime.) will announce the nominees for the Oscars. And so that I can get it down on paper, here our my predictions for this year's nominees. I'll have my own opinions on the actually nominees and how I faired tomorrow. I'm not expecting any of you to read that, as much as I'm not expecting any of you to have read this sentence. For now, enjoy.


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

District 9
An Education
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
Up in the Air

I think Precious, An Education, and Up in the Air are pretty much locks. And a lot of buzz has hovered around District 9 so it's an almost lock. The fifth slot is difficult to figure out, but a lot of people have been impressed with Anderson's Fox script, feeling that it is the first script to truly capture Roald Dahl. And capturing an author's vision is exactly what the Academy likes to reward.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up

The Hangover, thanks to the Golden Globe win, is getting enough pull to overtake other Oscar possibility, (500) Days of Summer. And the writer's branch of the Academy loves them some comedy.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Matt Damon, Invictus
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Christoph, Stanley, and Woody are pretty much a lock, but I think Morgan Freeman's nomination for Invictus will help carry over to Damon. I think we are going to see Anthony Mackie get some spillover Hurt Locker love. Thus, Woody Harrelson will be left out in the cold, but at least, he'll have some good weed while out there.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Vera Farminga, Up In The Air
Anna Kendrick, Up In the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man

The question here is which Inglourious Basterds actress is going to fill the fifth slot, Diane Kruger or Melanie Laurent. I liked Laurent's performance better but the Academy can be a sucker for a good accent, and Diane pulls off a good one. Melanie already had the accent.

BEST ACTRESS

Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia

This is one of the two categories that pretty much have five solid locks. Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria could sneak in, but I don't honestly see who she would knock out. So, taking the risk and calling it a lock.

BEST ACTOR

Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker

And this is the other category that's a lock. Less for not knowing who could get knocked out and more for who could possibly replace any of them.

BEST DIRECTOR

Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

It's the Kathy vs. Jimmy show here. But this is a close lock. However, Lee could get bumped out for Clint Eastwood for Invictus, mainly because he's f-ing Clint Eastwood.

BEST PICTURE

Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up in the Air

There are the five definites , we know there names by heart now: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Basterds, Precious and Up in the Air. If there were only five nominees this year, these would be it. Which leads the other five completely up in the air (excuse the pun). With the nominating procedures, I feel that District 9 and Star Trek could get in there on plenty of love from the technical awards people. I feel Up will miss out only because of the feeling that it will be honored for Best Animated Feature. A Serious Man has some support to slip in here. An Education won quite a few accolades over the awards season. And Invictus because, for the love of God, it's Clint F-ing Eastwood.