Well, that was painless this morning. There's a lot to discuss so let's get right into it. Though, I did miss the Groundhog this morning to watch the nominations, so could someone tell me how much more winter we've got ahead of us.
Best Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up In The Air
Who Will Win: The Hurt Locker. It's interesting that the wins at the DGA and the PGA has put such a low grossing film into the frontrunner spot. Best Picture winners tend to be box office hits, but this one barely made a blip in the Summer. The buzz is there earning the most nominations, and taking up most of the big prizes (Golden Globes excluded), this one will overtake Avatar, especially now that the Avatar backlash is starting.
Who Should Win: Inglourious Basterds. Still my favorite film of the year. It was so much more than what the movie was advertised as. The movie was the best celebration on the cult of film. Plus, it was all done focusing on dialogue and character interactions as opposed to mindless action. A triumph, and quite possibly, Tarantino's masterpiece.
What Happened: Invictus. Where's the Eastwood love? That's all I've got to say about that. Clearly, the Academy is ready to bestow a ton of that love onto Sandra Bullock. I predict that Speed 3: Speed 2 Never Happened will be nominated in the next few years.
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up In The Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Who Will Win: Jeff Bridges. So what if the movie isn't good. The Academy loves to give out awards to people who have had a long, successful career, but been snubbed quite a bit. This year, it's Bridges' turn.
Who Should Win: Jeremy Renner. This was a startling real, tense performance. He played the right amount of insane mixed with a rational mind and truly showed the effects that war has on the adreneline junkie. Plus, he took a punch to the face and gut like nobody's business.
What Happened?: Matt Damon, The Informant. Actually, I nailed this one, guessing 100% right the nominees. However, Damon gave the performance of his career with this little seen gem. It would've been nice for him to get the nod for this film instead of Invictus. That being said, I don't know who he should've replaced.
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Who Will Win: Sandra Bullock. Come back role mixed with an accent are Oscar gold. Bullock did an effortless job of capturing a real person with a performance that was well reviewed. And with the film winning a nom and Julie and Julia not getting anything other than Streep's nod, well, Meryl will have to wait until next year to get her third Oscar.
Who Should Win: Gabourey Sidibe. The most heartbreaking performance of the year. At least, the only one that made me cry. She did this with subtlety and understatement, which may be why she was overshadowed by Mo'Nique. To see who she is in reality, and you know that she accomplished what every actor wants: To not look like you're acting.
What Happened?: Emily Blunt, The Young Victoria. Actually, I nailed this one as well. But if someone could've snuck in, it would be this ingenue. But just like before, I don't know who she would replace.
Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, Invictus
Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Who Will and Should Win: Christoph Waltz. He won Best Actor at Cannes and that was just the beginning of the award avalanche he's been under. He created a true vision of a monster. Smart, tense, played with his victims. And he did it all with a smile. His first scene is suspenseful and the best part of an already great movie. Now, let's hope he doesn't have an acceptance speech this time.
What Happened?: Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker. I thought he would have rode on the accolades of The Hurt Locker to get in here, but instead, the Academy didn't forget about The Messenger like I originally thought.
Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, Nine
Vera Farmiga, Up In The Air
Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart
Anna Kendrick, Up In The Air
Mo'Nique, Precious
Who Should and Will Win: Mo'Nique. She's been winning awards left and right just like Waltz. And just like Waltz, she created a true monster, though one that's more intense and violent and terrifying. And expect to see her speech at the end of the film to be in the clip reel. Powerful. Almost made me forget Phat Girlz. Almost.
What Happened?: Julianne Moore, A Single Man. The Academy loves nominating her. But somehow, Maggie Gyllenhaal pulled an Ethan Hawke. (I'm referring to when Hawke was nominated for Best Supporting Actor for Training Day solely by riding on the laurels of Denzel's Oscar winning performance) I like Maggie, but is this really that outstanding of a performance?
Best Director
James Cameron, Avatar
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up In The Air
Who Should and Will Win: Kathryn Bigelow. Sure, I love the Basterds, but The Hurt Locker was hands down the best directed film of the year. Tense where it had to be without being over the top. The pacing was perfect and somehow created a realistic interpretation of war. Bigelow will be the first woman to win this award, and she'll do it with a film that goes beyond gender.
What Happened?: Clint Eastwood, Invictus. Seriously, Academy. I thought you loved him. Oh, and this was another category I got 100% right.
Best Adapted Screenplay
District 9, Neil Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell
An Education, Nick Hornby
In The Loop, Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche
Precious, Geoffrey Fletcher
Up In The Air, Sheldon Turner & Jason Reitman
Who Should and Will Win: Up in the Air. This movie best represented the current state of our world. And they did it by making smart additions to an unfilmable book which was told as more a stream of consciousness monologue.
What Happened?: Fantastic Mr. Fox. So, the Academy either hates Roald Dahl or Wes Anderson. Though, probably both.
Best Original Screenplay
The Hurt Locker, Mark Boal
Inglourious Basterds, Quentin Tarantino
The Messenger, Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman
A Serious Man, Joel & Ethan Coen
Up, Bob Peterson, Pete Docter & Thomas McCarthy
Who Should and Will Win: Inglourious Basterds. This movie is all about the most important aspect of any great script. The dialogue. Tarantino once again showed his mastery of dialogue, and he should get rewarded again for it.
What Happened?: The Hangover. I know that there is talks that Todd Phillips totally changed the script, but I figured that this was where the funniest movie of 2009 would get some attention. Alas, the Academy didn't forget about The Messenger like I had thought.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Monday, February 1, 2010
Oscar Nomination Prediction
It's been a long time since I've blogged, but I'm coming back hard core. For at least a couple of days.
I, like a majority of movie geeks, will be up by 8:30 am to watch Anne Hathaway and some guy (the president of the Academy or something, but who cares. I mean Anne Hathaway, right? She can princess my diaries anytime.) will announce the nominees for the Oscars. And so that I can get it down on paper, here our my predictions for this year's nominees. I'll have my own opinions on the actually nominees and how I faired tomorrow. I'm not expecting any of you to read that, as much as I'm not expecting any of you to have read this sentence. For now, enjoy.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9
An Education
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
Up in the Air
I think Precious, An Education, and Up in the Air are pretty much locks. And a lot of buzz has hovered around District 9 so it's an almost lock. The fifth slot is difficult to figure out, but a lot of people have been impressed with Anderson's Fox script, feeling that it is the first script to truly capture Roald Dahl. And capturing an author's vision is exactly what the Academy likes to reward.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
The Hangover, thanks to the Golden Globe win, is getting enough pull to overtake other Oscar possibility, (500) Days of Summer. And the writer's branch of the Academy loves them some comedy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Invictus
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Christoph, Stanley, and Woody are pretty much a lock, but I think Morgan Freeman's nomination for Invictus will help carry over to Damon. I think we are going to see Anthony Mackie get some spillover Hurt Locker love. Thus, Woody Harrelson will be left out in the cold, but at least, he'll have some good weed while out there.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vera Farminga, Up In The Air
Anna Kendrick, Up In the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
The question here is which Inglourious Basterds actress is going to fill the fifth slot, Diane Kruger or Melanie Laurent. I liked Laurent's performance better but the Academy can be a sucker for a good accent, and Diane pulls off a good one. Melanie already had the accent.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
This is one of the two categories that pretty much have five solid locks. Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria could sneak in, but I don't honestly see who she would knock out. So, taking the risk and calling it a lock.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
And this is the other category that's a lock. Less for not knowing who could get knocked out and more for who could possibly replace any of them.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
It's the Kathy vs. Jimmy show here. But this is a close lock. However, Lee could get bumped out for Clint Eastwood for Invictus, mainly because he's f-ing Clint Eastwood.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up in the Air
There are the five definites , we know there names by heart now: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Basterds, Precious and Up in the Air. If there were only five nominees this year, these would be it. Which leads the other five completely up in the air (excuse the pun). With the nominating procedures, I feel that District 9 and Star Trek could get in there on plenty of love from the technical awards people. I feel Up will miss out only because of the feeling that it will be honored for Best Animated Feature. A Serious Man has some support to slip in here. An Education won quite a few accolades over the awards season. And Invictus because, for the love of God, it's Clint F-ing Eastwood.
I, like a majority of movie geeks, will be up by 8:30 am to watch Anne Hathaway and some guy (the president of the Academy or something, but who cares. I mean Anne Hathaway, right? She can princess my diaries anytime.) will announce the nominees for the Oscars. And so that I can get it down on paper, here our my predictions for this year's nominees. I'll have my own opinions on the actually nominees and how I faired tomorrow. I'm not expecting any of you to read that, as much as I'm not expecting any of you to have read this sentence. For now, enjoy.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
District 9
An Education
Fantastic Mr. Fox
Precious
Up in the Air
I think Precious, An Education, and Up in the Air are pretty much locks. And a lot of buzz has hovered around District 9 so it's an almost lock. The fifth slot is difficult to figure out, but a lot of people have been impressed with Anderson's Fox script, feeling that it is the first script to truly capture Roald Dahl. And capturing an author's vision is exactly what the Academy likes to reward.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Hangover
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
A Serious Man
Up
The Hangover, thanks to the Golden Globe win, is getting enough pull to overtake other Oscar possibility, (500) Days of Summer. And the writer's branch of the Academy loves them some comedy.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Matt Damon, Invictus
Anthony Mackie, The Hurt Locker
Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Christoph, Stanley, and Woody are pretty much a lock, but I think Morgan Freeman's nomination for Invictus will help carry over to Damon. I think we are going to see Anthony Mackie get some spillover Hurt Locker love. Thus, Woody Harrelson will be left out in the cold, but at least, he'll have some good weed while out there.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Vera Farminga, Up In The Air
Anna Kendrick, Up In the Air
Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds
Mo'Nique, Precious
Julianne Moore, A Single Man
The question here is which Inglourious Basterds actress is going to fill the fifth slot, Diane Kruger or Melanie Laurent. I liked Laurent's performance better but the Academy can be a sucker for a good accent, and Diane pulls off a good one. Melanie already had the accent.
BEST ACTRESS
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Helen Mirren, The Last Station
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
This is one of the two categories that pretty much have five solid locks. Emily Blunt for The Young Victoria could sneak in, but I don't honestly see who she would knock out. So, taking the risk and calling it a lock.
BEST ACTOR
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
George Clooney, Up in the Air
Colin Firth, A Single Man
Morgan Freeman, Invictus
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
And this is the other category that's a lock. Less for not knowing who could get knocked out and more for who could possibly replace any of them.
BEST DIRECTOR
Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
James Cameron, Avatar
Lee Daniels, Precious
Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
It's the Kathy vs. Jimmy show here. But this is a close lock. However, Lee could get bumped out for Clint Eastwood for Invictus, mainly because he's f-ing Clint Eastwood.
BEST PICTURE
Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
A Serious Man
Star Trek
Up in the Air
There are the five definites , we know there names by heart now: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Basterds, Precious and Up in the Air. If there were only five nominees this year, these would be it. Which leads the other five completely up in the air (excuse the pun). With the nominating procedures, I feel that District 9 and Star Trek could get in there on plenty of love from the technical awards people. I feel Up will miss out only because of the feeling that it will be honored for Best Animated Feature. A Serious Man has some support to slip in here. An Education won quite a few accolades over the awards season. And Invictus because, for the love of God, it's Clint F-ing Eastwood.
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